Industry pundits predict that a billion cell phones will be sold in 2007. The same pundits also tell us that cell phones are discarded about once every two years. I myself have a cell phone from 2003 that looks increasingly prehistoric by the day, with no camera, no MP3, and no SD card slot. So, the two-year lifetime seems reasonable. The billion dollar question is, what happens to all the cell phones sold in 2007 when 2009 comes around? One obvious answer could be that the phones would be junked, like most other electronic devices. If each cell phone is 2cm x 4cm x 1cm, or 8cc, a billion cell phones would occupy 8x10^9 cc, or 8,000 cubic meters, which would occupy a trench a meter wide, 8 meters deep, and 1 km long. Not that much, really, especially if you were to dig the trench in an out of the way place. Another answer is to donate the phones to needy people. This is both a good idea, and something that is already a major trend. But with a billion phones being sold a year, and only 6 billion people on Earth, there will soon be more than enough phones to go around -- which will probably end up in a landfill... But perhaps we can do better. After all, a cell phone in 2007 is likely to have about a 200MHz processor, about 64MB RAM, a Bluetooth NIC, and a CDMA/GSM NIC, as well as a nice color screen. In effect, a little computer. Could we convert a billion tiny computers into a big computer? The technical challenges are quite interesting: dealing with power distribution, communication, failure, and massive coordination. So, it is interesting research anyway. Surprisingly, there may be money in it too. Suppose manufacturers had to deposit a $5 recycling fee for every cell phone they sold. This isn't that far-fetched: the EU already imposes such a fee on cars. Then, the billion cell phones translate into a %5bn annual revenue stream. So, if one were to take, say, a 10% market in recycling, one would have a $500mn annual revenue stream. Moreover, if the cell phones were incorporated into something useful (like a giant billboard, where every pixel was a cell phone screen), the cost of hardware would be essentially zero, plus there would be additional money to pay for everything else. What could one do with a set of phones? Here are some random ideas:
Maybe this is not that bizarre an idea after all! If you are interested in this, send me mail. ReCellular (http://www.recellular.net/brochure/about.asp) is a bulk consolidator of used cellphones, and provides the back end for Sprint and a number of 'cell phone donation for charity' organizations. I wonder what they are actually doing with the phones... From Jon Crowcroft (paraphrased): "What if everyone plugged in their old phone into the charger and left it on? You could build a multi-hop mesh network using the Bluetooth and WiFi interfaces..." This is brilliant! Maybe this is something that can be done right away! Here (http://www.networkworld.com/news/2005/091205widernet.html?net&story=091205widernet&code=nlnetflash7138) is another thing to do with old cell phones -- but I like my ideas better! |
 |